Re: Correlating distribution fctns
Posted by:
BLB350 (64.160.107.---)
Date: October 31, 2008 01:21PM
Alex, for this spreadsheet I want to make a correlation between a curve fit of the historical consumer price index, and a second emperical distribution of future interest rates. (I am making the statement that there is a correlation between inflation rate and savings interest rates over time.) It is a spreadsheet I made to address the uncertainty of my retirement account. Inputs that I am modeling with distribution curves are; inflation rate, interest rate, medical inflation, beginning balance, and expenses. Output is the 10 percentile (90% chance of being greater) of my account value every year up until my wife is 94 (and I'm Kaput!). If I don't correlate the interest rate with the inflation rate, then during the simulation, individual calculations could occur with say; low inflation rate and high interest rate. that doesn't seem realistic to me.
At work I have Crystal Ball available to me, and so I did a fit for the CPI using it's curve fitting ability. The best fit (chi-square) for the CPI historical data is a logistical fctn. And I also like the Weibull fit. If I use a logistical fctn for the inflation rate and use "CorrelatedNormalValue" for the interest rate, I get a normal distibution for the interest rate. I would like to see something that looks like the Logistical fctn I am correlating to.
One way to "bypass" this would be to just add several percentage points to the inflation rate fctn and call that my interest rate, but I would like to be able to correlate the two with a correaltion value of less than 1. Brian